The present bulletin gives an outlook about the progress of cereal crops in the Mediterranean region. It provides early qualitative forecasting of the 2021-2022 campaign, with particular focus on soft wheat, durum wheat and barley. This second outlook reviews crop conditions from the sowing up to 30 April 2022, with a specific focus on the 1 March-30 April period, and will be followed by a final report in June 2022.

This crop monitoring and early warning initiative was progressively developed since 2016 by the MED-Amin network in collaboration with the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, providing an early qualitative assessment of crop condition and yield potential of three winter cereals (soft wheat, durum wheat, barley) based on a GEOGLAM like approach but with a two-steps methodology using remote sensing and feedback from national Focal Points which enabled to identify hot-spot of concerns at subnational level using nomenclature and pie-charts similar to GEOGLAM for AMIS (Agricultural Market Information System) and to disseminate corresponding warnings

Focus on inputs market:

This bulletin gives insight on the possible impacts of soaring input prices (of which fertilizers) in the Mediterranean region’s productive potential (see National highlights section) [1]. Prices for fertilizers were already at extremely high levels before the war in Ukraine began, driven in part by strong demand and high prices for natural gas, a feedstock for nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea and ammonia. With the war, prices of all main fertilizers have spiked in view of limited supplies from Russia – the top fertilizer producer [2]. A fertilizer export ban enacted in China last July keeps on having an impact on prices, with implications in Morocco, an important producer of phosphates. The continuation of the war and related ongoing high natural gas prices are likely to maintain high prices for fertilizers in the coming months in the Med region (source IFPRI).


--> Download the report here.